Likelihood of Success

Iran climbs down

Apr 4, 2007 Orient, Politics and Poker

We are of course supposed to be impressed by Iran’s climb-down and release of the British hostages. Of course, Iran had nowhere else to go; as I said earlier, they had painted themselves, every bit as much as Tony Blair, into a corner — and they probably had more to lose at this point by prolonging the pain. Still, this is a better outcome at this point for Britain than any I could have imagined. But that doesn’t make it a good outcome. Roger Kimball (via Instapundit) isn’t fooled either:

The Iranians made their point. They brazenly kidnapped those British military personnel, calculating, correctly, that the Brits would do nothing to stop them. They publicly humiliated the sailors and marines, thumbed their noses at the “international community,” and made the point with brutal elegance that they could flout the law with impunity. Then they have the gall to say they have decided to make the British people a gift of their own countrymen.

I am glad the hostages are to be released. Their emancipation is no gift, however, but merely the bitter codicil of this latest instance of Iran’s criminal insolence.

Not only that, but the lovefest that will greet Ahmadinejad for this “gesture” — entirely guaranteed in this topsy-turvy moral world of international relations — will actually buy him (and his friends Syria and Russia) tremendous credibility, utterly undeserved, as someone regarding whom patience and of course a lack of harshness can bear fruit.

In short, he got what he wanted and needed, and is far better off for it than if he had never done it all. A brilliant tactical move, however wicked and illegal.